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Start free trialNVDA · 2026-10-12 · 226.32
Based on close of 2026-10-12. Prices have moved since; your own runs use the latest completed session.
- This analysis uses the latest 3,000 trading days (from 2014-11-05).
- No reliable drivers found for this stock, so the forecast is its historical base rate.
1Trade plan
Monte Carlo at current realized volatility, zero drift, first-touch barriers on daily closes.
No trade levels supplied — add entry / stop / target on the run screen to get barrier probabilities and average outcomes.
Scenario planner
No proven edge15 sessionsModelled chance of touching target before stop: 75.8%
Modelled chance of touching target before stop: 33.6%
Levels come from recent swing points and heavy-volume prices. Chances come from simulated price paths at current volatility with no assumed trend, checked on daily closes.
Research tool, not investment advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
3Forecast
Exact enumeration on CPTs smoothed toward the historical prior, then blended with it (weight chosen by walk-forward log-loss).
| Horizon | P(down) | P(flat) | P(up) | P(positive) | Median target | 80% band | Cell n | Cell episodes | Model w |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 3 weeks | 19.2% | 33.1% | 47.7% | 66.2% | 236.43 | 212.09 – 271.29 | 795 | 37 | 0.30 |
| 20d · 4 weeks | 18.1% | 36.7% | 45.2% | 66.5% | 226.32 | 208.53 – 244.67 | 2708 | 0 | 0.00 |
Parents selected by mutual information — 3w: vol · 4w: none. Historical prior 3w: down 20.1% / flat 35.3% / up 44.6%.
5Evidence table
Node values and market conditions grouped into simple states at the latest official close.
| Node | Value | State |
|---|---|---|
| Last close | 226.32 | 2026-10-12 |
| 5-day momentum | -5.27% | down |
| 20-day momentum | 7.28% | up |
| RSI(14) state | 49.4 | neutral |
| Realized vol regime (20d ann.) | 22.13% | low |
| Volume vs 20-day average | 0.66x | low |
| QQQ 20-day return | 5.31% | up |
Mutual information with the 3-week target: Realized vol regime (20d ann.) 0.0018 · QQQ 20-day return 0.0000 · Volume vs 20-day average 0.0000 · 20-day momentum 0.0000 · 5-day momentum 0.0000 · RSI(14) state 0.0000
6Analogue analysis
Past days in the same state as today on the model's chosen inputs, grouped into separate episodes (days less than 10 sessions apart count once).
| n | Mean | Median | Low range | High range | Up (vol-scaled) | Down (vol-scaled) | Hit >+10% | Hit <−10% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar episodes | 41 | 4.1% | 1.9% | -7.3% | 19.2% | 46.3% (36.7%–56.3%) | 24.4% (16.9%–33.9%) | 22.0% | 4.9% |
| All days (baseline) | 2965 | 3.8% | 3.6% | n/a | n/a | 44.0% | 20.0% | n/a | n/a |
| Lift | 0.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2.3% | 4.4% | n/a | n/a |
| n | Mean | Median | Low range | High range | Up (vol-scaled) | Down (vol-scaled) | Hit >+10% | Hit <−10% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar episodes | 45 | 4.8% | 2.9% | -8.5% | 15.6% | 42.2% (33.2%–51.8%) | 17.8% (11.6%–26.2%) | 28.9% | 6.7% |
| All days (baseline) | 2960 | 5.1% | 4.7% | n/a | n/a | 45.0% | 18.2% | n/a | n/a |
| Lift | -0.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.8% | -0.4% | n/a | n/a |
Up/down ranges are 80% intervals. Lift is how much the similar episodes differ from this stock's typical outcome.
| Day | Cumulative median return | Episodes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 46 |
| 2 | 0.7% | 46 |
| 3 | 0.8% | 46 |
| 4 | 0.6% | 46 |
| 5 | 0.9% | 46 |
| 6 | 1.4% | 46 |
| 7 | 0.1% | 46 |
| 8 | 1.9% | 46 |
| 9 | 1.7% | 46 |
| 10 | 1.9% | 46 |
| 11 | 2.3% | 46 |
| 12 | 3.1% | 45 |
| 13 | 3.4% | 45 |
| 14 | 2.8% | 45 |
| 15 | 2.6% | 45 |
| 16 | 3.3% | 45 |
| 17 | 2.4% | 45 |
| 18 | 2.9% | 45 |
| 19 | 2.3% | 45 |
| 20 | 2.9% | 45 |
| Date | Fwd 15d | Fwd 20d |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 4.8% | 15.9% |
| 2025-12-22 | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| 2025-10-23 | 2.6% | -0.8% |
| 2025-09-16 | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| 2025-08-08 | -4.7% | -7.9% |
| 2025-06-04 | 9.2% | 12.3% |
| 2025-05-20 | 6.3% | 8.3% |
7Context overlay
Catalysts the price-based network cannot see. Generated from public headlines — verify before acting.
News isn't included for this report.
Research tool, not investment advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
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Research tool, not investment advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.